Final look at election odds before the election:
There have been some improvements for the Coalition overall. But not enough – if every single one of the 16 “Maybe” and “Toss-up” seat falls to the Coalition, they will only have 72 seats, with Labor on 75. The Coalition then would also need to convert at least 3 of the seats where bettors currently give Labor a 67%+ chance of winning. Seems very unlikely.
As a reminder of the thought process behind the analysis:
I have a working theory that overall betting odds on elections are affected by what people wish would happen as much as what people think will happen. However, my theory is individual seat odds are less likely to be affected by the casual gambler and the betting odds are likely to be dominated by either (a) hardcore gamblers or (b) those with actual “on the ground” insight into what is happening – and both of these are groups I believe can offer insight into likely outcomes.
My next step is to categorise the seats into categories based on odds:
- Very Likely = $1.17 or better, implying an 85% chance of victory
- Likely = $1.18-$1.50, implying a 67%-85% chance of victory
- Maybe = $1.5-1.8, implying a 55%-67% chance of victory
- Toss-up = any worse odds
This gives me a better feel for the likelihood of an election outcome – in the past, this methodology has been successful at picking winners or identifying that it was too close to call (for the Gillard hung parliament). Basically I add up the likely and very likely’s and then look at how the remaining seats would need to fall.
Final thought – while the Warringah odds are close, given that Tony is a high-profile polarising figure, I’m guessing that Warringah is also affected by people betting for what they wish would happen – I just don’t know in which direction…