Inflation is not out of control in the US. However, the last three months have shown signs of life in almost every inflation category.
Over the last few weeks, financial markets have recently adjusted expectations to reflect a victory for Trump. However, there are a significant number of inconsistencies and risks.
There are a lot of "potential" investors on my mailing list. Waiting for the right entry point into the market. Some have been there for almost a decade, watching, waiting and hoping that market valuations will revert to average. Stuck on the sidelines. The question is whether valuations should be ...
Just a quick post as I'm musing the consequences of what could be a fundamental shift in AI.
Two of the best-performing stocks in our portfolio over the last year or so have been Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, due to their successful obesity drug rollouts. The question is whether there is more growth to come or if the share prices have run too far.
US inflation came in low. Services are still running hot, but that is mostly driven by housing costs. It would seem that the housing costs in CPI are probably overstated. See tables:
Are we headed for Tech Boom 2.0? There are considerable parallels between the tech boom in the early 2000s and the AI boom of the last year.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has held rates again and hasn't added a hawkish bias but its rhetoric is less patient:
It's amazing how two economists can see the macroeconomy so differently.
For 13 years, this website has tracked the decline and fall of Australian policymaking. We have been astounded at how low politics and policy can go at every turn, but in actuality, this is a reflection of our age.
A couple of notes from BCA make some good points about the prospects for Chinese growth.
Albert Edwards at Societe General is always worth reading.
While Albo is busy spending $27bn of your money on industrial bandaids, existing manufacturing continues to go bust at an alarming pace:
Yesterday, RBA Governor Bullock restated last month's interest rate guidance in ongoing evidence to Australia's parliament
All of the GDP partials have been released, suggesting that Wednesday's Q1 national accounts will show a deepening per capita recession, led by the household sector.
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