US inflation came in low. Services are still running hot, but that is mostly driven by housing costs. It would seem that the housing costs in CPI are probably overstated. See tables:
Rental inflation, the largest part of services inflation, is still running hot in the report. This is at odds with what participants are reporting:
It is a factor of how rents are calculated in the inflation numbers, reflecting that rental contracts don’t all expire each month and so the current numbers are only gradually added to the inflation report.
Net effect: 3 month annualised inflation is at 1.1%. And even that is held up by overstated housing inflation. Sure, it includes some big energy declines, but there is little in today’s report to suggest inflation is a concern.
