Chinese inflation indexes were weak again yesterday. Consumer price inflation has been weak for more than a year now. Yesterday merely confirmed December's downtrend.
Uncertainty increasing I have some pretty clear ideas about which trends are sustainable and which ones aren't in the long term. However, the short term is far less clear. A combination of the Omicron variant and a geopolitical energy crisis in Europe have extended inflationary and supply chain ...
2021 began with optimism. After Victoria beat off its virus second wave, Australia was effectively virus free with the economy primed to boom on the back of pent-up demand and the unprecedented stimulus saved by households that had yet to be unleashed on the economy.
A client asked us to look at a recent Bridgewater post titled It's Mostly a Demand Shock, Not a Supply Shock, and It's Everywhere, which has some important points to make. We have been taking the other side of the debate, and it is worth looking at the arguments in detail.
Broadly speaking, investing in either direct international shares or in international Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) will provide investors with greater diversity and exposure to foreign markets in their portfolio. Yet, what might appear to be the same on the surface is actually quite different ...
Investors seem to be looking at the same data and drawing vastly different conclusions. It’s like there are two utterly different investment markets in the one picture, depending on how you look at it.
Evergrande is not a rogue operator. Evergrande is merely the largest and most indebted property developer in a country full of large, indebted property developers. How China deals with Evergrande and its debt problems is critical for the next decade of Chinese growth, commodity prices and inflation ...
I've got a few quick thoughts on Victorian vaccine targets because I would love to get out of lockdown a few weeks early, and I think we have the wrong vaccine policy settings to do that.
The Evergrande saga is intensifying daily. The firm’s equity is all but gone. Its debt barely trades. Its sales and assets are crashing in value. Its brand damage is ruinous.
I had a fascinating space investment conversation (podcast) today with Dr Andrew Barton, an engineer specialising in space technologies with a long career in both Australia and internationally.
Last week I dealt with the less controversial changes to the Shiller P/E. You probably want to read that first. In this post, I derive a more advanced version: CAPE 3.0. The main finding? If you measure it differently, the last 20 years go from being an expensive aberration to a typical investment ...
For many value investors, the Shiller Price/Earnings ratio is the holy grail. There are a number of problems with the ratio which are making it look way more expensive than it is. If we fix just some of the least contentious issues, the Shiller P/E looks almost 25% cheaper.
We covered inflation in a lot of detail in our four-part series earlier this year. So far, the inflation cycle is playing out largely as foreshadowed. In particular, the inventory supercycle.
