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Australian dollar rips into short squeeze

David Llewellyn-Smith
by David Llewellyn-Smith
January 22, 2025

DXY is taking a breather.

Chart 1 of 11: the Australian dollar's short-squeeze rally | Nucleus Wealth

AUD is ripping into a short-squeeze.

Chart 2 of 11: the Australian dollar's short-squeeze rally | Nucleus Wealth

But it is wearing CNY concrete boots.

Chart 3 of 11: the Australian dollar's short-squeeze rally | Nucleus Wealth

Oil is a problem for markets.

Chart 4 of 11: the Australian dollar's short-squeeze rally | Nucleus Wealth

Dirt meh.

Chart 5 of 11: the Australian dollar's short-squeeze rally | Nucleus Wealth

Miners soggy bounce.

Chart 6 of 11: the Australian dollar's short-squeeze rally | Nucleus Wealth

EM likewise.

Chart 7 of 11: the Australian dollar's short-squeeze rally | Nucleus Wealth

Junk jump.

Chart 8 of 11: the Australian dollar's short-squeeze rally | Nucleus Wealth

Yield dump.

Chart 9 of 11: the Australian dollar's short-squeeze rally | Nucleus Wealth

Stocks pump.

Chart 10 of 11: the Australian dollar's short-squeeze rally | Nucleus Wealth

The US CPI was rocket fuel, as expected.

The so-called core consumer price index — which excludes food and energy costs — increased 0.2% after rising 0.3% four straight months, Bureau of Labor Statistics figures showed Wednesday.

That marked the first stepdown in the rate in six months. Cheaper hotel stays, a smaller advance in medical care services and relatively tame rent increases helped restrain the December figure.

Chart 11 of 11: the Australian dollar's short-squeeze rally | Nucleus Wealth

That's a good print with more disinflation ahead via rents in particular.

There may be enough here for a solid counter-trend rally especially if the leak about Trump's incremental tariff ratchet mechanism plays out.

Some of the excesses for AUD weakness can be worked off.